When U.S. forces move in from Okinawa, population will rise 25%
By DARIO AGNOTE - Kyodo News
HAGATNA, Guam — Guam is bracing for a deluge.
Thousands of American service members and their families are to relocate to the island from Japan in what could be the biggest such shift in forces since the war.
Already concerns are being raised over the "boomtown effect" — the rapid and large spike in population and related economic activity — on Guam's limited resources and inadequate infrastructure.
At least 8,600 marines and 630 army personnel plus their estimated 9,900 dependents are expected to move here from Okinawa. There will also be a transient military component up to 9,000-strong.
Joining the crowd will be the thousands of outside workers needed to build new roads, deep-draft wharves, aircraft carrier berthing, barracks, houses and similar infrastructure on Guam and on Tinian off Saipan, 160 km to the northeast.
Construction will begin next year despite funding concerns that stem from the Hatoyama administration's reluctance to share in the multimillion dollar relocation cost.
The immediate concern is whether the Japanese government will honor the 2006 deal struck by its predecessor to chip in $6.09 billion for the relocation, which has an estimated price tag of $12 billion to $15 billion.
The biggest concern, however, is the social cost.
The relocation of most of the marines and their dependents is expected to start in 2014, coinciding with the peak in construction activities and expenditures.
"At this peak, the total increase in Guam residents from off-island would be an estimated 79,178 people," says a draft environmental impact statement commissioned by the U.S. Defense Department.
After 2014, when the infrastructure projects are completed, the population is expected to level off to an estimated 33,608 people, on top of Guam's current population of about 178,000.
Based on the estimates of project planners, the endeavor will result in approximately $12 billion, in 2008 dollars, worth of construction occurring on Guam between 2010 and 2016.
Although the desired completion date moving the military personnel is 2014, the construction will likely continue into 2016, the study says.
Guam's population will increase by more than 25 percent during the four- to six-year buildup, said Paul Shintaku, executive director of the Guam Buildup Office.
"The impacts will be wide-ranging and far-reaching. It would be every aspect of the community and our social structure," Shintaku said.
"It's overwhelming," added Shintaku's deputy, Nora Camacho. "It can be from traffic to the hospital to our social services, schools, transport of goods coming into Guam and goods going out of Guam to Micronesia. It doesn't only affect Guam. It affects the entire Micronesia because we're a regional hub."
People from the Philippines, the United States, Palau, the Federated States of Micronesia, the Republic of Marshall Islands and even Samoa are expected to descend on the island in search of jobs.
"There is cause for concern over the impacts on crime and social order due to other factors," the EIS study says, adding construction booms "are typically accompanied by a sense of loosened norms and social disorder."
People "from the Freely Associated States of Micronesia — whose numbers may increase in both the construction and operational stages due to more job opportunities — have high crime rates associated with adapting to less traditional social structures," it says. "There is a potential for more prostitution, alcohol and substance abuse, and family violence associated with young military populations in general, including sailors taking shore leave after weeks at sea.
"The particular reputation of marines as fighters could well trigger a transitional period of adjustment in which local young men test themselves against marines in fights," it says.
There are also concerns over the possibility that some of the workers will stay on the island for good and contribute to the "growing minoritization" of Chamorros, the indigenous people of the Mariana Islands.
Prior to World War II, Chamorros comprised more than 90 percent of Guam's population. The percentage dropped below 50 percent by 1980 and fell to 42 percent by 2000, the study says.
"There will be an expansion in non-Chamorro voting population that could affect the proportion of Chamorro office-holders and government workers, eventually affecting the current government budgets and activities dedicated to cultural issues and practices. It could also affect outcomes of any future votes about Guam's political status," it says.
"The buildup is so beneficial, beyond our comprehension and beyond what you see in the past," Camacho said.
David Leddy, president of the Guam Chamber of Commerce, says there is overwhelming support for the relocation.
"We treat it as another industry," he said. "The local government is the biggest beneficiary in terms of revenues that can be generated from the economic activities.
"There are positive and negative impacts. We just have to weigh the positive and negative and see what's good for the people," Leddy said.
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